El Niño. Southern Oscillation 2015/16 and its impact on the regime of average air surface temperature in Paraguay

Abstract

El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a natural phenomenon characterized by the fluctuation of temperatures in the central and eastern part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is associated with changes in the atmosphere. El Niño is one of the most significant manifestations of the interannual climate variability of our planet. It is crucial for our country to understand this phenomenon. While we currently have more information on this, there is still much to investigate to have a more comprehensive approach to the phenomenon. El Niño has a great influence on the climatic variations of diverse parts of the world, and in Paraguay the climate is seriously disturbed every time that the phenomenon appears. The study explores the El Niño 2015/16 phenomenon on the behavior of surface air temperature, using the Southern Oscillation index and the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean as an indicator. The study period covers January 2015 to February 2016, analyzing the behavior of the average monthly temperature, and its respective anomaly, through 19 weather stations systematically operated by the Directorate of Meteorology and Hydrology. From the results it is concluded that the El ENOS 2015/16 phenomenon began in April and extended until the first semester of 2016, reaching its maximum intensity in December 2015. It can be affirmed that in Paraguay the average air temperature it is affected by the ENSO phenomenon, leading to significant increases in the average temperature during its appearance, especially in the cold period, reaching its maximum value of positive variation in June and August. The anomalies of the sea surface temperature of El Niño (1+2) and El Niño (3) regions show indications that they can be used to predict the behavior of the air surface temperature regime in Paraguay.